Japanese professors: The number of people infected with corona virus is increasing but the mortality rate will decrease, 2019-nCoV may become a normal seasonal flu.

When the total number of confirmed corona virus cases increased to more than 28,000 on February 6, experts warned that this could be just ...



When the total number of confirmed corona virus cases increased to more than 28,000 on February 6, experts warned that this could be just the tip of the iceberg. Because this epidemic has some similarities with the outbreak of swine flu in the last decade.

Up to now, the new virus strain - 2019-nCoV, has been shown to cause fewer deaths than SARS. Official data shows that the mortality rate of 2019-nCoV infections is about 2%, while SARS is 10%. This rate is on par with H1N1, with a mortality rate below 0.5%.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the basic production amount of this new virus - the average number of cases caused by each infected person, is 1.4 to 2.5. Tetsuya Mizutani, a professor at Tokyo University of Technology and Agriculture, said: "The level of transmission of this virus will continue to do so" and note that the lack of confirmation of the "super-infection" situation will cause The number of people infected is bigger.

More dangerous lethal diseases tend to be less contagious, since hosts often die before infecting others. WHO has declared the SARS outbreak prevented 8 months after the first patient was detected in Guangdong Province - China on November 11, 2002.

However, a disease that does not cause as many deaths as H1N1 flu can continue to spread and develop into new pathogens, helping it survive in the sick longer. The corona virus is this type, according to Mizutani.



Hiroshi Nishiura - a professor at Hokkaido University in Japan, predicts that the epidemic will peak in April and emphasizes the need to prepare patients at risk of serious illness, in the case of disease broke out into a pandemic.

Koichi Otsuki, a professor at Tottori University in Japan, said the outbreak had a similar spread to swine fever in 2009 and 2010.

Other experts have not reached a conclusion yet, arguing that this is still too early to say. Some argue that it will take nearly two more weeks for a clearer picture of corona virus infection and lethality.

Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University of Medicine, said: "This is a large-scale outbreak and we have not yet fully identified its characteristics. We need to pay attention when the epidemic culminated and ended in Wuhan, along with other Chinese cities. "

After the H1N1 outbreak, the disease became another type of seasonal flu - one of the best known strains this year. Kazuyoshi Ikuta, head of the microbiology department at the Osaka Institute of Public Health, said the new coronavirus could become another cause of the common cold. Four types of corona virus have become a common disease for humans, accounting for a quarter of the common cold, according to the US health website - Stat.

Wuhan was cordoned off on January 23, and the Chinese government imposed restrictions on travel groups from China on January 27. Any infection due to the last groups arriving in Japan before the ban has an estimated incubation period of up to 10 days.

Mitsuyoshi Urashima, a professor of molecular epidemiology at Jikei Medical University in Tokyo, said: "If there is no more corona virus infection next week, then we can consider that the risk of an outbreak is already decrease."

References Nikkei
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High Tech Brain: Japanese professors: The number of people infected with corona virus is increasing but the mortality rate will decrease, 2019-nCoV may become a normal seasonal flu.
Japanese professors: The number of people infected with corona virus is increasing but the mortality rate will decrease, 2019-nCoV may become a normal seasonal flu.
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