Morgan Stanley: The economic downturn will take place over the next 9 months if trade tension continues to escalate

Currently, investors may still be neglecting the overall risk to the global economy caused by the trade war, although US stocks have hit th...


Currently, investors may still be neglecting the overall risk to the global economy caused by the trade war, although US stocks have hit the worst mark since the beginning of the year.

According to Chetan Ahya, chief economist and chief economist at Morgan Stanley, a recession is likely to take place in about 9 months. If President Donald Trump imposes a 25% tax on 300 billion USD of additional goods exported from China and China, there is also his retaliatory measure.

Ahya writes in the note: "My recent discussion with investors has strengthened the notion that the market is underestimating the impact of trade tensions. Investors are often concerned. The point is that trade disputes may take longer, but it seems that they are reconsidering its impact on the global macro outlook. ".

The rift in the relationship between the Trump administration and the government of Xi Jinping continued to escalate, as both sides blamed each other for the failure of the negotiations. Last weekend, Mr. Trump expressed his pleasure with his trade policies and a recent move to impose taxes on Mexican goods to protest illegal immigration. Not stopping there, trade tension between the US and the European Union (EU) is also in the "fire pan".


Trump's tweet on Sunday: "When you are the 'piggy bank' nation that foreign countries have been robbing and deceiving for years, the word TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed! Other must treat the United States fairly and with respect - We are no longer the "fools" of the past! ".

On Sunday, China issued the White Book and said the increasingly intense trade war between the two countries did not "back the great America". Instead, the paper argues that Mr. Trump's trade policies have harmed the US economy itself, because it causes production costs, product prices to skyrocket and damage to the economy. Chief, as well as the livelihoods of the people, create barriers to the export of US goods to China.

The White Paper wrote: "It can be seen that the tariff that the US raises tariffs on China, in addition to solving problems, will just be worse for all parties."

These comments were made after both governments pushed trade tension higher by increasing tariffs and threatening companies of each country. So far, there is no indication that either party is seeking solutions to ease these disputes or continue negotiations.

Ahya wrote in a note on Sunday that although the stock market has negative movements, investors are still considering the impact of the trade war on global macroeconomic prospects. . He added that the growth rate will be affected when types of costs increase, customer demand falls and companies cut capital costs.

When the negative effects of the tariff war become more apparent, political actions, even if given, are too late. Policies to mitigate impacts seem to be too passive and slow to enter into force.

Ahya writes: "Recently published growth figures show that trade tension continues to influence, we should not underestimate those impacts on the global economic cycle."
According to Bloomberg
Compiled by Mr. Lucky

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High Tech Brain: Morgan Stanley: The economic downturn will take place over the next 9 months if trade tension continues to escalate
Morgan Stanley: The economic downturn will take place over the next 9 months if trade tension continues to escalate
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