The war on taxes and the impact on the stock market in Vietnam

If investors are trading in the US or China market is pessimistic as soon as possible, early selling price will be higher than selling lat...

If investors are trading in the US or China market is pessimistic as soon as possible, early selling price will be higher than selling late, buy later the cheaper price. If we are not in that area, the change will be very fast, very strong and very unexpected!

 Vietnam stock market is trading at the threshold of large fluctuation fluctuations, the weekly cycle VN-Index has the range of bolinger fluctuations in the amplitude about 200 points increase and decrease, so the event is very fluctuating. strong.
Day 3 "bloody"
The supply and demand session of 19/06/2018 witnessed the buying power just waiting at the low price, selling force impatient, sell despite the price. It leads to a sharp and deep decline. Group VN30 has traded at the floor price including: BID, BVH, CTG, GAS, GMD, HSG, MWG, PLX, ROS, STB, SSI, the HNX30 has CEO, NTP, SHS and VCS. Many stocks with strong growth recently were "white buyers", there were some liquidity codes such as ROS, LDG, VCI ... in which HBC had a large price fluctuation when 3 trading sessions with volume of over 9 million shares at the price of 28,000 dong per share and quickly lost liquidity in the floor price of 26,000 dong / share from 19/06 morning.
Apart from the issue of adjustment after a series of trading sessions, the Vietnam stock market is similar to other Asian markets, because the fear of trade war between the US and China will be reduced. Harmful to other countries, including Vietnam.
New taxation and protectionism
Since the first days of the campaign, President Donald J. Trump has insisted on re-establishing economic ties with China. The trade deficit of the United States - China has remained above $ 300 billion since 2012, [1] leading to a change in the Trump administration. A summary of the US trade deficit with China is as follows [2]:


 According to the latest figures in April 2018, the US deficit with China increased 1.2% over the same period to 27.9 billion. In particular, US exports of metals, petroleum, coal, forest products and gas rose by 99%, 60%, 43% and 15% respectively over the same period last year. . China's exports to the United States include oil and coal products up 483% over the same period last year, and China's exports to the United States in the beverage, tobacco and chemical products sectors. up 46% and 23% respectively. [3] Negotiations on bilateral US bilateral trade basically each side has the following requirements [2]:
 
 Negotiations between the two sides led to US $ 50 billion in taxes on Chinese goods and vice versa. China retaliated by US $ 50 billion on US goods. This war ends only when either side concludes and agrees to the other party's request, or both parties concur with the request. In particular, there are requirements that are difficult to accept, such as the requirement of protection of intellectual property rights of the United States in the context of China is a famous country in violation of this right. So this tax war could be a long battle, beginning with the movement of protectionism.
The risk of global supply chain rupture
China's new taxation will hit US exports to the United States, which account for 8 percent of US exports to the rest of the world. New US tariffs will hit China's exports to the US, which account for nearly 4 percent of GDP and 20 percent of China's total exports.
Attempts to pull US companies into China's return to Trump's country make this tax war predicted not to be short-lived. So, 8% of US exports and 20% of China's total exports will move to? What country of origin will replace that need?
Obviously, in today's information age, consumers are smart enough to look for alternatives that originate in countries that are not subject to high tax rates for use with comparable functions and are not subject to tax levies. High price should be more reasonable.
The Trump government expects to replace 20% of its imports from China by reducing its trade deficit with China by bringing factories back to the United States, creating jobs for Americans, but That certainly can not be done quickly.
Moving the system to another country, having an incompatible expertise is not easy and requires a lot of time and a lot of adaptation. As a result, fears of rupture of the supply chain on a transnational scale will lead to a global economic slowdown.
For example, business partners who previously supplied inputs have been cooperative for many years, will now have to look for partners outside the tax area to keep their competitive edge. As such, intermittent supply chains are shifting, causing many changes.
China, which has long been known for its high-tech, labor-intensive workforce, wants to find another country with a Chinese equivalent that requires time and capital to invest in. American firms or of any other country, these disturbances hinder integration and impede growth in the short run.

 In danger, there is always a chance (chance)
On clear commodity US consumers before buying Chinese goods at high prices due to tax, they will have to consider the equivalent source of goods, substitute goods, replenishment from other markets, and vice versa. from China too. So in the short run this is the opportunity to join the global supply chain of other countries, including Vietnam.
Although, in order not to be subject to tariffs, states must prove that the goods are not of Chinese origin, an important and difficult condition as China often relies on input material for production. If the policy is supported, and if enterprises quickly catch up and find a way to respond quickly, they will have the opportunity to export goods to the largest markets in the US, China in the future.
Regarding FDI, the retaliatory move shows that China is not expected to comply with US requirements. If the United States conducts alliances with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, then China will be in trouble. Since then, other developing countries will have the opportunity to attract FDI from other countries, and that opportunity certainly will be for Vietnam.

Impacts on the stock market in Vietnam
The strategy of putting the United States at the forefront of the Trump regime has shaken the global financial markets. As a result, foreign currency inflows into the Vietnamese market have been strongly diminished in recent sessions due to the domino effect from the sharp fall of the US and China.
Besides, the dong exchange rate fluctuated. On 19/06, USD exchange rate peaked at VND 22,800 (buy) and VND 22,870 (sell), the Euro exchange rate dropped again. Margin interest rates in securities companies increased slightly. In addition to unclear concerns about the status of US trade wars, China has spread to other countries following protectionism.
Negative sentiment covered the market, down sharply, including those that were not related to imports and exports, without the involvement of foreign capital flows, which created overwhelming sales of holders. row. Vietnam stock market is trading at the threshold of large fluctuation fluctuations, the weekly cycle VN-Index has the range of bolinger fluctuations in the amplitude about 200 points increase and decrease, so the event is very fluctuating. strong. Psychological turn to sell is also available at the investor to protect the previous profit.
Regarding the global financial market, although there is a close relationship, however, the reduction in large scale in all codes, all sectors, because indirect causes are unclear, reduced due to over-selling or over-selling. Recovery is usually very fast and powerful.
If investors are trading in the US or China market is pessimistic as soon as possible, early selling price will be higher than selling late, buy later the cheaper price. If we are not in that area, the change will be very fast, very strong and very unexpected!

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High Tech Brain: The war on taxes and the impact on the stock market in Vietnam
The war on taxes and the impact on the stock market in Vietnam
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